From sweets to dinnerware, décor and even apparel, holiday goods are omnipresent — often appearing months before the event, whether it’s Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas or Valentine’s Day.
Here’s a heads-up for this year: don’t delay purchasing the items you want. They might vanish before the holiday even arrives on the calendar. Also, don’t count on the deep post-holiday clearances that used to let shoppers stock up for the following year.
You’ll probably find lower prices at discount chains, but this season the bigger frustration for buyers may be the dwindling availability of seasonal products as the holiday approaches. Looking for Thanksgiving placemats and napkins? Buy them well before Halloween.
“What we are definitely observing, and I’ve noticed over the past few years, is a rising consumer appetite for seasonal goods, whether Christmas, Halloween or Easter,” said Lisa Surella, vice president and general merchandise manager for Bealls Outlet stores.
Pandemic Has Boosted Demand for Holiday Merchandise
The COVID pandemic has intensified customer interest.
“I believe it largely comes from people wanting to mark holidays with loved ones. They want something cheerful and fun — that comforting feel of the holiday season,” Surella said.
Using last year’s trends, Surella and other retailers are attempting to forecast demand.
“I can’t predict precisely how this year will unfold, but there’s definitely an uptick in desire for all things Christmas, whether it’s clothing or home décor,” she noted. “At least that’s our expectation, since we’re already seeing demand even for smaller holidays like Halloween.”
That translates into bigger orders, but retailers don’t want to overcommit, meaning the era of massive post-holiday clearance sales for seasonal stock may be waning.
Stores are trying to meet demand without being left with large amounts of leftover inventory, Surella explained.
Supply Chain Snags Could Create Seasonal Shortages
Lingering supply chain disruptions may also lead to shortages of seasonal merchandise this year.
“I think it may cause some shipments to arrive so late that we’ll have to decide what to do with them. There’s no point putting Christmas items out the day after Christmas,” Surella said. That could mean holding them in storage until next year.
“We purchased a lot because we anticipated a significant rise in demand this year, so I think we should be positioned fairly well, but I’m already seeing some delays on deliveries.”
If you spot something you really want, don’t hesitate.
Retailers Better Understand Their Shoppers
Retail planning has improved over time, though the pandemic has complicated forecasting.
“With advanced data science, retailers have gotten more precise at planning and tracking individual purchases,” said Theo Prodromitis, an experienced retail consultant and member of the National Retail Federation’s Small Business Retail Advisory Council.
Through loyalty programs and tools like click-and-collect, retailers can see customers’ past buys and predict future purchases.
Prodromitis said if a store knows you buy Pokémon cards, they’ll notify you when seasonal Pokémon merchandise arrives, and they can estimate order quantities based on historical purchases.
“The more data they collect, the more they can tailor their seasonal assortment,” she said.
Months ahead of a holiday, Prodromitis advises clients on how much floor space should be dedicated to seasonal items.
“Retailers evaluate every square foot in terms of the revenue it will produce,” she explained. “So they plan how much area to allocate for seasonal goods and, if that displaces other products, how to handle those items.”
She said the big clearance blowouts after holidays have largely disappeared because retailers are leaner and prioritizing staple merchandise, particularly in light of supply chain challenges.
“They still serve customers and yes, seasonal items are profitable, but the daily core of their business — what brings people into a store like Home Depot — isn’t the novelty dancing Christmas tree,” she added.
Shoppers Are Buying Seasonal Items Earlier Than Before
You’re not imagining it: holidays feel like they arrive earlier each year.
A National Retail Federation survey of 6,615 adult shoppers in November 2020 found that 59% of respondents had started shopping for the late-winter holidays in early November, and more than 40% said they began shopping earlier than they used to. Over half said the pandemic increased their interest in holiday décor and seasonal products.
“We’re seeing items land on the floor early — sometimes due to accidental or early shipments — and when they do, they often sell extremely well,” Surella said. “I think that ties back to an increased appetite for holiday merchandise.”
American-themed items were a surprise hit this year. Surella typically puts out red, white and blue goods around Memorial Day in late May; this year they started selling much sooner and stayed on shelves longer than usual.
Her forecast for winter: family sleepwear. Matching pajamas seem to be irresistible.
“That’s a category that performs very well for us. At the right price, those items are sentimental and uplifting,” she said, noting they often sell early for family photos.
So when you spot coordinating sleepwear for the whole household — including the family pet — snag it. It may be gone later.
Jamie Alvarez is a Florida-based freelance journalist with more than 25 years covering finance, health, travel and related subjects.
