You’ve probably heard the warnings: holiday shopping this year could be a mess even the Grinch didn’t imagine. Supply-chain disruptions, shipping backups, and workforce shortages will make scoring big-ticket presents more difficult.
At the same time, consumer demand is climbing. Shoppers plan to spend about $785 on average this season — more than they intended in both 2019 and 2020, according to market research firm The NPD Group Inc.
If you haven’t begun your gift buying yet, don’t freak out. With flexibility, you’ll still find plenty of presents. But if you’re fixed on getting one of the nine items below, it’s wise to begin the search right away.
9 Gifts That Will Be Ridiculously Hard to Find This Year
These nine gifts are predicted to be especially scarce during the holidays. If someone on your list wants one of these, expect limited availability — and prepare a backup option.
1. Gaming Consoles
For many gamers, the 2021 holiday season is shaping up to be disappointing. The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X remain scarce nearly a year after launch. Now Nintendo has announced a 20% production cut for the Nintendo Switch in its 2021 fiscal year.
The global semiconductor shortage is only part of the story. Gaming gear demand exploded at the start of the pandemic as people looked for home entertainment. To add insult to injury, shoppers are increasingly competing with automated bots that scoop up consoles, which then appear at secondary sellers marked up outrageously.
Sadly, consoles are likely to remain tough to obtain after the holidays. Shortages could persist into fall 2022 or even 2023.
2. Bicycles
When COVID-19 forced gyms to close and public transit to be avoided, many people turned to biking for exercise and commuting. As non-cyclists flooded the market for bicycles, the industry wrestled with factory shutdowns in Asia — where most bikes are made — and shipping slowdowns.
MarketWatch noted in October that it now takes over 70 days from the moment an order is placed until a bicycle reaches a warehouse, compared with about 45 days before the pandemic. Many within the bike industry expect shortages to extend into 2022.
3. iPhone 13
Apple has handled supply-chain strains better than many competitors thanks to its purchasing power and long-term supplier contracts. But even the world’s most valuable company is feeling the squeeze from the chip shortage.
Apple is projected to ship 10 million fewer iPhone 13 units than initially forecast through the end of 2021. New iPads, MacBook Pros and the Apple Watch Series 7 are also likely to be scarce.
As of early November, Apple’s site showed estimated delivery windows under a week for the standard iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 mini. However, the pricier iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max had delivery estimates extending into mid-December.
4. Engagement Rings
Diamond mining, trading and cutting largely halted in spring 2020, yet jewelry demand stayed surprisingly strong. As life inches back toward normal and couples resume planning trips (common proposal settings) and weddings, demand is expected to rise. Investors chasing diamonds have also tightened supply.
Retailers are finding it harder to source diamonds and precious metals. If you plan to propose during the holidays or gift an eye-catching piece of jewelry, allow extra time and budget. The New York Times reports that colored gems like emeralds and rubies may be particularly pricey and scarce this season due to mining production issues worldwide.
5. Cars
TV ads might make waking up to a new set of wheels on Christmas morning look effortless. In reality, that’s rare — and this holiday season is one of the worst times to buy a car.
The auto industry has been battered by the global chip shortage and shipping problems. Meanwhile, pandemic-era avoidance of public transit boosted vehicle demand.
Consequently, the average new-car price passed $45,000 in September for the first time ever — a 7.7% year-over-year increase, per Kelley Blue Book. Even typically affordable brands are seeing steep price gains: Hyundai, Kia (up 15.4% year over year) and Mitsubishi (up 23.8% year over year). The latest Consumer Price Index also showed used car prices rose 26.4% over the past 12 months.
Dealerships are operating with very thin inventories. The vehicles that are available are often less desirable trims, and they’re selling well above sticker price. If a loved one hopes to find car keys in their stocking, it might be kinder to remind them there’s always next year.
6. Toys
Toy demand has stayed high during the pandemic as parents tried to keep kids entertained at home. For months, manufacturers have warned that toys could be scarce this season. Plastics and resins used in many toys are in limited supply. Sky-high shipping costs and limited warehouse space and drivers also threaten availability.
Forecasts differ on how severe the toy shortage will be. It may be harder than usual to find 2021’s hottest toys. But unless you insist on the season’s top craze, you should still find many alternatives.
7. Sneakers
Expect a narrower selection if you’re shopping for someone’s next pair of sneakers. Rubber and plastic — essential components for many shoes — are in short supply.
The footwear sector faces the same pressures as other manufacturers: port congestion, labor shortages and factory disruptions in Asia. Nike’s CFO noted during a Sept. 23 earnings call that the company lost about 10 weeks of production since mid-July in Vietnam, a major manufacturing hub.
You likely won’t encounter empty shoe racks, but the available inventory may include older or less popular styles — and you should be ready to pay more. Footwear News reported shoe prices were up 6.5% in September compared with a year earlier.
8. Surprise Bestsellers
Reading surged during the pandemic, and many people have been buying physical books rather than e-books.
As demand for printed books rises, the raw materials required to produce them — wood pulp for paper and ink — have tightened. Numerous U.S. printing plants have also closed over the years as publishers anticipated the decline of print editions.
Your local bookstore probably won’t be bare. If a book is a widely anticipated bestseller, it should be available. The worry is about surprise hits: books that suddenly explode in popularity and for which retailers may not be able to print enough copies in time for the holidays.
9. Wine
Wine supplies are expected to be tighter this holiday season, and the pandemic isn’t solely to blame. Droughts in California and other western states have reduced grape yields at many vineyards. Meanwhile, much of the wine that does exist is aging in oak barrels because glass bottles are scarce due to pandemic-related shortages.
Stores probably won’t be completely out of wine this year. But if you have your heart set on a particular bottle as a present or for your celebration, have backup choices ready. Also consider shopping earlier, since alcohol is a popular last-minute gift and early buying can help you avoid stockouts.
What to Do if You Can’t Buy the Gift You Want
If someone you care about is fixated on a difficult-to-find gift, it’s time to set realistic expectations. These are unusual circumstances: too many buyers chasing too few goods will leave many disappointed. Remember, it’s not worth busting your budget or going into debt to secure one perfect gift.
Here are practical strategies to navigate supply-chain headaches this holiday season:
- Don’t wait for a deep discount. It’s unsurprising that holiday deals may be scarce this year. Decide on a price limit and stick to it. If you find a much-desired item you’re determined to give, don’t gamble on a last-minute markdown.
- Buy pre-owned. Check thrift stores, local online marketplaces and classified ads for items like bicycles and toys.
- Give an IOU. If the desired item is backordered, create a fun certificate that shows the gift is coming. It won’t be the same as unwrapping a brand-new console, but it can keep the excitement alive into the new year.
- Give cash or gift cards. If you’re over the scramble for hot-ticket items, gifting money or a card is perfectly acceptable.
- Stop procrastinating. Many shoppers began their holiday buying in September or October this year, so the advice to “shop early” is still relevant. If you’re putting it off, consider this your wake-up call: the longer you delay, the tougher shopping will be in 2021.
Robin Hartley is a certified financial planner and a senior writer at Savinly. She pens the Dear Savinly personal finance advice column. Send your tricky money questions to [email protected].
